Ukrainian drone campaign cripples Russian oil refining capacity

The scale of the disruption is unprecedented. According to EA Analytics, Russia processed an average of 3.91 million barrels of oil per day over the past month, a figure not seen since March 2005. The strikes have systematically targeted secondary refining units, which are particularly difficult to repair due to a lack of Western components. Analysts from the Polish think tank OSW warn that the Russian government remains largely powerless to reverse the decline, as constant attacks prevent essential maintenance and deplete emergency fuel stocks.

Economic impacts are already rippling through the country. Wholesale diesel prices for road transport have surged by 75.8 percent, while bitumen costs for infrastructure projects have risen by 45.5 percent. With roughly 70 percent of Russian freight moved by road, the fuel shortage is beginning to exert significant pressure on food prices and broader inflation. Economist Vladimir Milov has characterized the drone campaign as a "black swan" event, arguing that Russia, once an energy powerhouse, is effectively being forced into a position where it must import petrol to sustain its domestic economy. Meanwhile, the state budget deficit has ballooned to nearly 8 trillion roubles, far exceeding original projections as the economic toll of the conflict intensifies.