The advisory firm plans to elevate its winter price forecast to an average of €60 per megawatt hour, a significant climb from the current €45 baseline. Lead economist Daniel Kral noted that while the situation is unlikely to reach the extreme price spikes of over €300 seen during the height of the 2022 energy crunch, the margin for error remains razor-thin.
EU Faces Winter Energy Crunch as Gas Reserves Dwindle
European gas storage levels are tracking unusually low, setting the stage for the most volatile energy market since the 2022 crisis. Oxford Economics warns that a combination of dwindling reserves and unpredictable winter weather could force a sharp upward revision in gas prices, testing the bloc’s resilience once again.
Brussels has made structural shifts to mitigate these risks, successfully reducing total gas consumption by 15 to 20 percent over the last few years. New procurement strategies are also in play, designed specifically to dampen the volatility that previously rocked the continent. Despite these policy adjustments, the bloc’s energy security remains tethered to seasonal temperatures, leaving little room for a sustained cold snap.
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