Incoming Senate faces Social Security shortfall projected for 2032

The program pays benefits to more than 75 million people and spends more than it collects in tax revenue. In 2033, Social Security is projected to take in $2 trillion and spend $2.4 trillion as the U.S. population ages. Researchers and aging advocates have urged Congress to act, but lawmakers have not settled on a clear solvency plan.

Candidates in closely watched Senate races often focused on affordability, though Social Security featured in their campaign promises. Many Democrats backed raising or eliminating the payroll-tax cap on high earners. Republican candidates more often emphasized protecting current beneficiaries, reducing fraud or forming bipartisan commissions, without endorsing a specific plan. Other proposals included an investment fund and smaller annual benefit adjustments.

Among the winning candidates cited, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Troy Jackson of Maine and Josh Turek of Iowa supported removing the cap; Adam Hamilton of Kansas backed raising it but had not endorsed eliminating it. Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan also proposed ending taxes on Social Security benefits, while James Talarico of Texas called for eliminating the cap on earnings above $400,000 and encouraging employer pensions. Several candidates also backed expanding home-based care or supporting family caregivers.

The cap currently limits Social Security taxes to the first $184,500 of a worker’s earnings, even for someone making $1 million. Raising it could bring in substantial revenue and delay insolvency, though the program would still run a deficit; a smaller increase would delay the shortfall less. Proposals to target fraud have drawn criticism that improper payments can result from errors rather than intentional deception, and that anti-fraud efforts may yield limited savings. Raising the retirement age has also been politically unpopular; some proposals would increase the normal retirement age to 69 and delayed retirement age to 72.

Older voters also face questions about health coverage. The source says provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are set to take effect next year, while Democrats have discussed protecting Medicaid from cuts, expanding Medicare coverage and restoring Affordable Care Act subsidies.