Nuclear weapons must be part of Ukraine peace talks

American, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators have resumed peace talks, reaching a limited agreement to exchange prisoners of war. Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s envoy, says Washington is pursuing “a broader European security architecture” built around permanent security consultations, reliable crisis communications, greater military transparency, reciprocal steps to reduce escalation risks and a long-term stability framework. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has also called for a wider European security arrangement before a deal to end the war.

The article argues that each of Kushner’s five goals has a nuclear dimension. Since February 2022, President Vladimir Putin has used implicit and explicit nuclear threats in an effort to gain tactical advantage in the full-scale invasion, it says. It also warns that for almost a year the United States and Russia have had no binding limits on their strategic arsenals. A peace deal that rewards territory seized under nuclear coercion, the article says, could encourage other countries to seek nuclear weapons.

It also criticises Europe’s response. In March, French President Emmanuel Macron announced the first increase in France’s nuclear arsenal in more than three decades and introduced an undefined “forward deterrence” concept. The article says such steps risk adopting Moscow’s logic by intensifying a contest of nuclear threats and increasing the chance of miscalculation.

The proposed European demands include a binding commitment that nuclear threats are inadmissible, with consequences for violations; the removal of Russian weapons from Belarus and US weapons from six European countries; and interim, verified limits on nuclear weapons, including warhead numbers and inspections. It also calls for nuclear disarmament to be anchored in existing law, including the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which bans the use, possession and threat of use of nuclear weapons.

Countries are due to meet at the UN in three weeks for the treaty’s first review conference. The article says European governments seeking a security order resistant to nuclear blackmail should attend, at least as observers.