Traditional political theory holds that when external threats mount, voters gravitate toward parties with proven governing experience and foreign-policy expertise. However, the performance of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in recent regional contests challenges this assumption. Despite the party’s Russia-friendly platform and opposition to military support for Ukraine, its support base remains remarkably resilient. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD secured over 38 percent of the vote, while Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats failed to clear the five-percent hurdle for parliamentary entry.
Why Europe’s security crisis may fail to save the political centre
As Europe prepares for a cascade of elections in 2027, mainstream parties are banking on a security dividend to stall the rise of the far-right. Yet, recent electoral data from Germany suggests that a heightened sense of external threat is not driving voters back to the political establishment.
New research from Bocconi and Duke universities highlights the nature of this disconnect. While simulated security threats—such as the collapse of NATO or a Russian invasion of a Baltic state—do drive a rally around the center, those gains come exclusively from mainstream voters abandoning smaller liberal or green parties. AfD voters, conversely, remain unmoved. They may acknowledge the urgency of the security climate, yet they do not view the establishment as the solution. If Europe’s security environment continues to deteriorate through 2027, mainstream leaders cannot rely on geopolitics to do their heavy lifting. They will need to offer more than just a sense of stability to win back those who have migrated to the extremes.
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